Nigerian rises concern over what could be ECOWAS next steps
The ECOWAS under the chairmanship of Nigeria President Bola Tinubu on Thursday sent groups of delegates to negotiate peace with the Niger coup leader, in efforts to reinstate elected President Mohamed Bazoum and democratic government in Niger.
However, idanNews reported on Friday that Niger coup leader dares ECOWAS, cuts ties with Nigeria to abort peace talk.
Nonetheless, It should be noted that the peace talk movement sprung up after a series of meetings among ECOWAS leaders on how they can stop the military coup that is gradually taking over West African countries.
Meanwhile, It was gathered on Wednesday that ECOWAS vowed to do ‘anything within its capacity to reinstate elected President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger.’ It was the resolution of this Wednesday’s meeting that brought the idea of delegates to Niger for peace talk but the leader of the military coup refused to meet with the delegates rather cut ties with Nigeria, Togo and France.
Recall that General Christopher Musa, Chief of Defence Staff, while commenting after the meeting in Abuja last Wednesday hinted that military action could be deployed to arrest the hostage situation in Niger.
Musa said, “We need to restore constitutional order; when the seven days elapse, anything can happen. Heads of state have said nothing is off the table,” he said. “We are not sure which country will be next; if we do not arrest this situation, West Africa is going to be a laughing stock of Africa and the world.”
The CDS also noted that Nigeria as a regional leader of ECOWAS will play a crucial role in restoring the democratic government in Niger “Nigeria is a regional leader; there is no way this region can overcome these challenges without the leadership role of Nigeria. We are at an inflection point now; it seems like President Bola Tinubu is being challenged,”
Nigerian rises concern over what could be ECOWAS next steps
Nonetheless, Should ECOWAS think of going Physical against Niger, Nigeria Government being the leader have been warned by its citizens to look inward and not outwards before considering leading ECOWAS to war against Niger.
Bashir Magashi, the immediate past minister of defence, reportedly said Nigeria’s borders are porous and under-policed.
He warned in February 2023 that the military was overburdened because of inadequate manpower and numerous security challenges confronting the nation.
According to him “Adequate manpower is paramount for any military force to perform effectively. As of 2022, Nigeria with an estimated population of about 220 million people has a total military strength of about 223,000 personnel. This gives a ratio of military personnel to the population of approximately 11,000. This is lower than those of Nigeria’s neighbours except Niger (Republic),” Magashi.
“I am very strongly in agreement. The one mistake we must not make under any circumstances whatsoever in my own view is to get the Nigerian military, which is struggling with the 70,000sq kilometres of Borno State and Niger State drawn in into the 1.2 million sq kilometres of Niger,” a senior corporate strategist told BusinessDay on condition of anonymity.
He said: “This thing is probably triggered by some weird international permutations of money and geopolitics and can therefore not be solved by bullets as the US found in Afghanistan with its wide and open borders. Other people’s problems have been brought to our neighbourhood and we need brains to figure this out, not bullets.
“I have this off-key concept that perhaps for once, we carefully play China as a card to resolve this. I believe China is a very self-centred country geopolitically, and supports Russia in Ukraine tacitly because it is neither in their interest to see US adversaries weakened too much, nor do they need food.
“China needs oil and natural resources and I believe they will seek their own interest before others. Perhaps a play would be for them to see that an unstable West Africa is bad for stable mineral supply long term? After all, they are the ones buying the majority of the things you listed above.”
Sen. Shehu Sani, a former lawmaker, believes that an armed invasion of Niger Republic by ECOWAS is simply a war between Nigeria and Niger because of both countries’ proximity to each other. He is apprehensive that Russia and Wagner, a Russian private military company, may support Niger Republic, leaving Nigeria to use its own money to prosecute the operation.
